Monday, August 19, 2019
Forecasting Best Practices Essay -- essays research papers
Forecasting â€Å"Best Practices†â€Å"Effective demand planning and sales forecasting across the supply chain can bring a host of benefits. Specifically, it can help improve labor productivity, reduce head count, cut inventories, and speed up production flows, and increase revenues and profits.                                         -Edward J. Marien To find the â€Å"best practices†for forecasting, our team researched many cases of forecasting success, and found five companies with a common theme. Rayovac, the Coca-Cola Bottling Company, AAi. FosterGrant, the Sara Lee Corporation, and the Scotts Company all had major problems with forecasting, some of them very similar. To address and solve these problems each of these companies made major improvements to their forecasting systems. Although some used similar methods and others very different, these companies found that the right people, process and information technology was the key to efficient and accurate forecasting. Rayovac          Rayovac discovered the proper use of forecasting when it implemented its consensus decision-making teams to improve their performance. They believe that the best information comes directly from the customer. Therefore, their forecasting takes place from the bottom-up. Sales, marketing, finance, and supply chain builds a consensus for forecasting, inventory management, scheduling, warehousing, and transportation. Their consensus forecasting is the responsibility of a cross-functional team.      For their annual planning process, a bottom-up and a top-down forecasting procedure is used. The top Key Results Measures (KRMs) are compared with the bottom-up forecast which is developed by the consensus teams. Meetings are held to align the two when there are discrepancies. Monthly meetings are held to update the bottom-up forecast and actions are taken to bring the forecast and annual plan into alignment.      Rayovac has discovered some key guidelines to be used for successful forecasting and planning: 1.     Actually using the forecast to drive the business and not... ...orecasting cannot be understated. Many companies have found that after successful forecasting and proper use of people, process, and technology have led to increased performance of the company as a whole. This has been proven in our analysis of the current best practices of forecasting in the workplace. References 1.     Bowman, Robert J. â€Å"Scotts Cultivates a Customer Centric Supply Chain Strategy.†Global Logistics and Supply Chain Strategies, July 2004. 2.     Hoffman, Kurt C. â€Å"Who’s That Behind FosterGrant’s Demand.†Global Logistics and Supply Chain Strategies, December 2003. 3.     Marien, Edward J. Demand Planning and Sales Forecasting: A Supply Chain Essential. Supply Chain Management Review, 1999 4.     Murphy, Jean V. â€Å"More Accurate Forecasts Give Sales, Operations Planning New Life at Sara Lee Unit.†Global Logistics and Supply Chain Strategies, March 2003. 5.     Murphy, Jean V. â€Å"Special Issue: Collaborative Commerce Forecasting Tool Lowers Coke Bottler’s Inventory.†Global Logistics and Supply Chain Strategies, November 2002.
Sunday, August 18, 2019
Fight Club: A Narrative Analysis Essay -- Cinema
Barsam and Monahan define a narrative as, â€Å"A cinematic structure in which content is selected and arranged in a cause-and-effect sequence of events occurring over time†(553). David Fincher’s Fight Club uses a very unique narrative mode in that the whole film is self-narrated by the unnamed main character and has one of the best surprise endings in this writer’s opinion. This makes the film a prime specimen to be broken apart for further narrative analysis. The film starts out with the nameless narrator played by Edward Norton in a nameless city. The narrator, stuck in a dead-end white collar job, suffers from insomnia and is told he can’t receive medication. This paints Norton’s character as someone who is stuck, without any visible options to alleviate his pains. He then proceeds to visit support groups to see people worse off than himself. Eventually he finds relief from his insomnia in the emotional release he gets from these different support groups he pretends to be a part of. Then he meets the femme fatale of the film, Marla Singer. She too is feeding off the emotional release from the support groups which leads to the first conflict of the film. On a flight back from a business trip the narrator befriends Tyler Durden, a physically fit soap salesman played by Brad Pitt. This is the point where you realize that for the first thirty minutes of the film random flashes of a tall blonde man appear on the screen for le ss than a second. Foreshadowing his importance, if someone is quick enough to catch a good enough glance of these flashes they will recognize that it is Tyler Durden, and so the plot thickens. Tyler Durden is what some people would consider a muscle head, but he has much too many ideas for those stereotypes t... ...sumed he has gone through the required change most protagonists go through in narratives. With characters, plots and tones that throw the viewer through more loops than a roller coaster, Fight Club explores several of the narrative elements with many twists, turns, and plot devices that leave the mind pondering for days after viewing the film. Wrought with symbolism and the powerful themes of anti-consumerism and breaking down the walls we put around ourselves, there are several lessons to be taken from watching this film. Works Cited Barsam, Richard., and Dave Monahan. Looking at Movies: An Introduction to Film. New York: W. W. Norton, 2010. Print. Fight Club. Dir. David Fincher. Perf. Brad Pitt and Edward Norton. 1999. 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment, 2000. DVD. "Fight Club." IMDb. IMDb.com. Web. 05 May 2012. . Fight Club: A Narrative Analysis Essay -- Cinema Barsam and Monahan define a narrative as, â€Å"A cinematic structure in which content is selected and arranged in a cause-and-effect sequence of events occurring over time†(553). David Fincher’s Fight Club uses a very unique narrative mode in that the whole film is self-narrated by the unnamed main character and has one of the best surprise endings in this writer’s opinion. This makes the film a prime specimen to be broken apart for further narrative analysis. The film starts out with the nameless narrator played by Edward Norton in a nameless city. The narrator, stuck in a dead-end white collar job, suffers from insomnia and is told he can’t receive medication. This paints Norton’s character as someone who is stuck, without any visible options to alleviate his pains. He then proceeds to visit support groups to see people worse off than himself. Eventually he finds relief from his insomnia in the emotional release he gets from these different support groups he pretends to be a part of. Then he meets the femme fatale of the film, Marla Singer. She too is feeding off the emotional release from the support groups which leads to the first conflict of the film. On a flight back from a business trip the narrator befriends Tyler Durden, a physically fit soap salesman played by Brad Pitt. This is the point where you realize that for the first thirty minutes of the film random flashes of a tall blonde man appear on the screen for le ss than a second. Foreshadowing his importance, if someone is quick enough to catch a good enough glance of these flashes they will recognize that it is Tyler Durden, and so the plot thickens. Tyler Durden is what some people would consider a muscle head, but he has much too many ideas for those stereotypes t... ...sumed he has gone through the required change most protagonists go through in narratives. With characters, plots and tones that throw the viewer through more loops than a roller coaster, Fight Club explores several of the narrative elements with many twists, turns, and plot devices that leave the mind pondering for days after viewing the film. Wrought with symbolism and the powerful themes of anti-consumerism and breaking down the walls we put around ourselves, there are several lessons to be taken from watching this film. Works Cited Barsam, Richard., and Dave Monahan. Looking at Movies: An Introduction to Film. New York: W. W. Norton, 2010. Print. Fight Club. Dir. David Fincher. Perf. Brad Pitt and Edward Norton. 1999. 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment, 2000. DVD. "Fight Club." IMDb. IMDb.com. Web. 05 May 2012. .
Saturday, August 17, 2019
Marx and arnold †individual in the class
Karl Marx was one of the most influential ideologues of all times. His ideas fired men to revolutions and empowered them as a class denoted by the proletariat to wage struggle against domination by the bourgeois. (Marx. Engels. Et Al.:1998). His ideology of individual empowerment contributing to class control over society holds sway amongst a large swathe of humanity even to this day. While Marx was a powerful believer in individual power, it was through its regulation that change in society was brought about. This change was not the way a person pleased or sought it to be but on the basis of history and as per existing circumstances. (Marx. Engels: 1986).  In the struggle of the classes, Marx believed that it was individual influence as denoted in labor power which had been undermined over the years by the bourgeoisie. The control granted to individuals through their work denoted labor power which comprised of the prime energy which created a vital force in nations. (Marx: 1999). Marx values labor power as it is the only means which can produce more value than its worth, thus this is the productive value of individuals. (Marx: 2003). Class struggle as per Marx begins with individual power generated by personal toil which is coagulated to destroy those elements which work against their interests. Thus Marx believed that the exploitative nature of individual power particularly amongst the bourgeoisie will be brought to an end through collective authority of individuals of the proletariat. (Karl Marx: 2006). Marx states that each man in a capitalist system works in his own interest and thus ultimately results in the destruction of the organism as a whole. (Aron: 1965). The ideal structure for harnessing individual power is thus felt to be the communist system wherein the power of each individual can be channelised for the collective good. An individual’s role is related to his role in class and economic relations and thus his power is also channelised in that direction. (Marx: 1999). The view of individual power held by Marx is thus of production, material creation and contribution to the class struggle. The individual soul loses its power in the collectivity of the class to which he belongs. Arnold was a poet in the Victorian era who is said to have guidance and rationality in an age which was increasingly industrialized and when individuals were losing their moorings to increased vocationalisation of human activity. By adopting the analogies of the Barbarians, Philistines and Populace wherein individuality was subordinated, Arnold attempted to bring back a sense of power to the individual. (Arnold EB: 2006). Arnold’s philosophy of individualism was based on the ability of the individual to change society by following a contrarian approach rather than just blindly following reality. Arnold abhorred the average man who he believed failed to contribute to quality in society. It is the individual who is not average, the, â€Å"remnant†as he called it who contributes most to the social order and democracy. A remnant is required to be humble and should look upwards to some standard. Once a majority of the people assume such a quality, as per Arnold, the whole society will rise above the normal. For raising such a social order, education was a key parameter. Education has to be humanist and religious and not merely utilitarian or sentimental. The scientific temper of education has been reducing the humane standards that people have.  There was a greater need for reinventing education to enable a holistic approach. (The Dialogue: 2006). Arnold calls for finding the best amongst oneself and then follow it. This self needs to be one which is the best and not what is upper most in the mind. An individual should not go against this, â€Å"best light†and ensure that this light is not darkness. (Arnold : 2000). Pursuit of culture which generates beauty and intelligence or what Arnold has called sweetness and light in individual is its main purpose. (Arnold : 2000) Action by individuals should be guided by such sweetness and light. There should be no fear that such men cannot bear the trials of a tough life, by avoiding rough action. By relying on less random action people can confront such acts. Arnold believed that the central theme of British society was assertion of personal liberty. However he was clearly against individualism resulting in anarchy. (Arnold : 2000) Arnolds identified religion as per Christ as a force which was based on individual proclivities acting on himself rather than injunctions from outside. Thus the individual can gain control over himself and thus contribute to society. (Style : 2006). Arnold spawned the movement of humanism in the United Staes which provided the guiding light of morality from past civilisations for individuals to survive in a world which was turning towards greater individualism and materialism. (New Humanism : 2006). The strength of Arnold’s style lay lies in his use of the satirical and analytic to denote his theories which made them more explicit. (Genre : 2006). The individual power denoted by Marx is one which has been harnessed for creation, production and destruction. (Marx. Engels: 1986). It is power in the individual for action resulting from his labor, as against intrinsic power developed through intermix with education and culture. Marx wants to harness individual power to change society, to bring class struggle; Arnold wants individual power to raise the resistance of humans to survive in an increasingly materialistic and industrialized World. (Marx. Engels: 1986). The strength or power in an individual as per Arnold came from within, while Marx believed that individual power came from the society and the environment surrounding him. The power of individuals as per Marx rests in his ability to produce value through labor, it is to be harnessed collectively, on the other hand, Arnold believes in power of the individual which is derived from his culture and sensitivities and which guides him to do the right things for the overall good of society. (Arnold : 2000). Thus there was a major differentiation between the identification and use of power between Marx and Arnold. Reference 1.      The Dialogue. 2006. The Dialogue Of The Mind With Itself†http://www.nhumanities.org/arnold.htm†(30 May 2006). 2.      Culture and Anarchy. http://www.authorama.com/culture-and-anarchy-4.html. (31 May 2006). 3.      Arnold, Matthew. 2000. Culture and Anarchy : An Essay in Political an Social Criticism (Collected Works of Matthew Arnold). Classic Books. 4.      â€Å"Arnold, Matthew. EB 2006. â€Å"Encyclopà ¦dia Britannica. Encyclopà ¦dia Britannica Premium Service.http://wwwa.britannica.com/eb/article?tocId=9009580>. (30 May 2006). 5.      New Humanism. (2006). In Encyclopà ¦dia Britannica. Encyclopà ¦dia Britannica Premium Service: http://wwwa.britannica.com/eb/article?tocId=9055477. (30 May 2006). 6.      Style. 2006. http://www.victorianweb.org/authors/arnold/style1.html. (31 May 2006). 7.      http://www.victorianweb.org/genre/ej/2c4.html. (31 May 2006). 8.      Karl Marx. 2006. http://www.anu.edu.au/polsci/marx/classics/manifesto.htmlKarl Marx. (31 May 2006). 9.      Marx. 2003. http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/marx/. (31 May 2006). 10.   Aron, Raymond. 1965. Main Currents in Sociological Thought. Basic Books. New York. 11.   Marx, Karl. 1999. Das Kapital. Gateway. New York. 12. Marx, Karl. Engels, Friedrich McLellan, David. 1998. The Communist Manifesto. Oxford University Press, New York. New Ed edition. 13. Marx Engels. 1986. Collected Works. International Publishers.
Nurse Education Essay
Nursing has always seemed to be a profession in which the nurse is the follower of the doctor such as their personal minion only doing the nominal things that the doctor does not want to do. However in Florence Nightingale’s Notes on Nursing and the article â€Å"Quality and Nursing†by Hall, Moore, and Barnsteiner you can see that nurses can have a much larger impact on the healthcare system. In Nightingale’s book the author takes an in-depth look at nursing and exclaims that it should not be the mere, â€Å"administration of medicines and application of poultices†(Florence 2). The article â€Å"Quality and Nursing†looks into what nursing is and the potential it has to make a larger impact on the healthcare system. These two informative pieces make a claim that the nurse’s job has been inhibited by the lack of knowledge of what elements make a good nurse, and that it is time for them to not merely be a follower of a doctor but through bett er communication and continued education nurses could improve the healthcare system. Patient’s safety is a key issue in both documents and with the right nurse you can increase the efficiency of their safety. Nightingale notes that with â€Å"bad sanitary, bad architectural, and bad administrative arrangements,†it is impossible for a nurse to work effectively (Florence 2). What the author is trying to say here is that they do not really know how to keep things running in a smooth fashion in a hospital to increase the safety of the patients. This in turn has an adverse affect on the nurses because it keeps nurses from advancing and limits them to simply be administers of medicine and bandages. The author later goes on to reveal that the elements of nursing are really unknown in that the art of nursing has been one that tries to, â€Å"unmake what God had made a disease to be, a reparative process†(Florence 2). In contrast the article on â€Å"Quality and Nursing,†says that today it is not the lack of knowledge in patient safety but a lac k of communication between nurses within a hospital and across the country. The writers of this article are making the point that patient safety has become a major focus for virtually every health system within the past ten years. For example it was noted in a study from 2000 that 3% to 4% of hospitalized patients died from adverse effects of being in the hospital (Hall 418). Another study in 2004 revealed that 1 in 200 patients died of preventable diseases that were caused from being hospitalized (Hall 418). Through evaluation of efficiency and effectiveness of operations in the hospitals they have noted that health professionals need to acquire skills relating to quality control just as much as having knowledge of how to perform surgery. Just as Nightingale exclaimed, in 1859, it is not the lack of advancement in medicine but rather the lack of patient safety that is holding nurses back from performing successfully (Florence 4). Within the articles one can see that both authors note the need for better quality of care in the hospitals. Nightingale is mesmerized by the fact that we can advance so much in the laws of motion and astronomy but we can not better understand the human body which is under observation every minute of everyday. The author is criticizing us on being more experienced about astronomy than simple hygiene. She suggests that there is something that the hospital could do to increase sanitation and better quality. While Nightingale shows that there is a need for better quality in healthcare she does not suggest anything that could be done. However, she states that the hospital should be responsible for it. On the other hand the article by Hall, Moore and Barnsteiner show that specific programs have been made to improve the quality in the workplace. They include that systematic improvement initiatives will improve, â€Å"patient flow problems, communication around complex patients, and improv ing medication safety†(Hall 419). Not only does it improve those things but also as these qualities improve it will increase the joy of the nurses in the work place in turn leading to higher patient satisfaction. With further education nurses can also serve as better patient advocates through, †integration of care, provision of emotional support, education of patients and families, assistance with compensation for loss of function, and monitoring of patient status†(Hall 419). Programs that aid with the implement of those topics patients and families can be introduced to a common ground between medicine and natural healing. When nurses are able to fulfill this balance there can be a better atmosphere for the patient and families as well as the medical staff. Nightingale originally established this principle with her theory on what nursing is, and what it is not and one can see how it is finally being implemented today in the modern day of nursing. This being said the theories started in Nightingales time period really just needed time and realization to be understood. Through these points we can see that Florence Nightingale was a very smart individual and laid the basis for what nursing is today with her confrontation of the things hospitals need to improve on. This historic text relates directly to the modern text found today in the article on quality and nursing. Once one has read both articles it can be noted that there has been a tremendous effort to increase the quality of healthcare in the last ten years which can and will benefit the patient while also making the job of nurses more enjoyable. The shift in these time periods has led to greater initiatives that deal with the problems in the hospital by creating safer and more cutting-edge environments. All the resources that nurses have and will be exposed to in the modern world is leading to a more proficient health system that is increasing the quality and well being of the medical field. Works Cited Hall, Leslie W., Shirley M. Moore, and Jane H. Barnsteiner. â€Å"Quality And Nursing: Moving From A Concept To A Core Competency.†Urologic Nursing 28.6 (2008): 417-425. Academic Search Premier. Web. 19 Feb. 2014. Florence Nightingale. Notes on Nursing. NY. Barnes & Noble, 2003.
Friday, August 16, 2019
Kaleidoscope Strategy Resume Essay
Pursuing success can feel like shooting in a landscape of moving targets: Every time you hit one, five more pop up from another direction. We are under constant pressure to do more, get more, be more. But is that really what success is all about? Laura Nash and Howard Stevenson interviewed and surveyed hundreds of professionals to study the assumptions behind the idea of success. They then built a practical framework for a new way of thinking about successâ€â€a way that leads to personal and professional fulfillment instead of feelings of anxiety and stress. The authors’ research uncovered four irreducible components of success: 1.- happiness: (feelings of pleasure or contentment about your life); 2.- achievement (accomplishments that compare favorably against similar goals others have strived for); 3.- significance (the sense that you’ve made a positive impact on people you care about); and 4.- legacy (a way to establish your values or accomplishments so as to help others find future success). Unless you hit on all four categories with regularity, any one win will fail to satisfy. People who achieve lasting success, the authors learned, tend to rely on a kaleidoscope strategy to structure their aspirations and activities. This article explains how to build your own kaleidoscope framework. The process can help you determine which tasks you should undertake to fulfill the different components of success and uncover areas where there are holes. It can also help you make better choices about what you spend your time on and the level of energy you put into each activity. According to Nash and Stevenson, successful people who experience real satisfaction achieve it through the deliberate imposition of limits. Cultivating your sense of â€Å"just enough†can help you set reachable goals, tally up more true wins, and enjoy lasting.
Thursday, August 15, 2019
Spanish & Russian Empires
The age of exploration, a period of expansion for many Eurasian empires occured between 1450 and 1800. During this period both the Spanish and thep Russian empires were able to advance economically from their connections with societies westward. Both empires used some form of a labor system in order to support their social structures, despite the fact that where the laborers originated was different within the two empires. From a political standpoint, both empires were run under an autocratic government. This period was extremely crtical to the development of both the Spanish and Russian empires. Both the Spanish and Russian empires were goeverned by an autocratic body of government. The Russian empire was ruled by a czar, while the title of the head of Spain is a king. The set up of the government of the Spanish empire was probably was developed by the catholic church, while the Russians probably modeled their government after ideas borrowed from the west. From a pollitical standpoint the major difference between the empires was that the Spanish was a maritime empire while the Russian were a landbased empire. While the Spanish focused primarily on expanding overseas, the Russians felt it was better to expandm without traveling overseas. Since the Spanish also controlled land overseas they developed a system known as viceroyalty, where a govenor was put in place to oversee the control of the Spanish colonies in the new world. The Spanish and Russian empires both developed a similar social structure. At the bottom of social structure within both empires were the labor workers. Since both economies flourished based on agricultural successes, both societies required a group of people to work the lands. The Spanish relied primarily on forced laborers from outside of their colonies, typically consisting of slaves from Africa and the native Americans. Unlike the Spanish, the Russians looked towards locals to take part in a form of serfdom. Both the Spanish and Russian empires looked westward for ways to move foreward. The Spanish focused on economical advancements while the Russian empire focused mainly on social aspects. The Russians focused on social aspects because they felt that thier submission to the mongols had put them at a severe disadvantage to the europeans. The Russians borrowed estern ideas such as those used in art, architecture, and justice. The Spanish and Russian empires were both agricullturally based. The Spanish was an empire that not only developed domestic trade but also traded overseas. The Spanish basically single-handedly brought the new world into the worldwide economy. The Spanish were at the forefront of the triangle trade which pumped alot of money into th e European economy. The Columbian Exchange brought a lot of new cash and staple crops into Europe such as potatoes and tobacco. The Russian empire however focused on developing a local economy. The local peasentry was forced into serfdom. The strict enforcement of serfdom was put in place to work the land that supports Russian economy. The age of exploration, from 1450 to 1800 was a critical point in the development of many of the Eurasian empires. Despite being seperated by vast expanses of geographical features, ideas were able to blend profusely within seperate cultures. Clearly no amount of division can stop the bridge between the building of two different empires. â€â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€Ã¢â‚¬â€œ
Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Succubus Shadows Chapter 4
I spent the whole morning waiting restlessly for Roman. Surely he had to come home at some point to sleep, right? Of course, being part greater immortal, he'd have a lot of the traits of his angelic parentage – and angels and demons never needed to sleep. Roman could likely get by on very little rest and simply chose to sleep in as often as he did for the fun of it. I left a message on Jerome's cell phone, which was useless more often than not. I also kind of wished I hadn't parted from Carter so soon. Caught up in the Pictionary absurdity, I'd totally forgotten about my siren song encounters. Indeed, I'd nearly written them off until last night's repeat. But if Jerome was hard to get a hold of, Carter was impossible. He kept no cell phone and seemed to take personal pride in showing up at unexpected moments. Left with no other options, I called my friend Erik. He was a human who ran a store specializing in esoteric and pagan goods. He was often my backup for bizarre supernatural situations, sometimes knowing more than my friends did. As I dialed his store's number, I couldn't help but marvel at the circles my life seemed to run on. I was repeating the same pattern over and over. Something weird would happen, I'd fruitlessly attempt to contact my superiors, and end up seeking Erik for help. â€Å"Why the fuck does this keep happening to me?†I muttered as the phone rang. Cody never got stalked by paranormal forces. Neither did any of the others. It was like I was specifically being targeted. Or cursed. Or simply imbued with bad luck. Yes, my life was a never-ending spiral, doomed to repeat the same patterns of annoying immortal threats – and miserable romantic situations. â€Å"Hello?†â€Å"Erik? This is Georgina.†â€Å"Miss Kincaid,†he said in his usual genteel voice. â€Å"A pleasure to hear from you.†â€Å"I need your help with something. Again. Are you around? I wanted to swing by before work.†There was a pause, and then I heard regret in his voice. â€Å"Unfortunately, I have to run errands and close the store today. I'll be back this evening. When do you finish work?†â€Å"I'll probably be free at ten.†Another evening shift. â€Å"I can meet you then.†I felt bad. His store usually closed around five. â€Å"No, no†¦that's too late. We could try tomorrow†¦.†â€Å"Miss Kincaid,†he said gently, â€Å"I'm always happy to see you. It's no difficulty at all.†I still felt guilty when we disconnected. Erik was getting old. Shouldn't he be in bed by ten? Nine? There was nothing to be done for it now, though. He said he'd do it, and I'd seen him when he was obstinate. I had nothing to do but wait now and hope Roman would surface before I had to work. When he didn't, I simply left him a note saying I needed to talk to him immediately. It was the best I could do. At work, no one was out or – best of all – hungover. I was caught up on my paperwork, which gave me a lot of free time. Whether that was good or bad, I couldn't say. It kept me from messing up my job but merely left me in a cycle of rumination. It was nearly closing time when I noticed Seth at his usual station in the caf? ¦. Maddie had worked the day shift, which meant I didn't have to face their cute couple antics. He caught my eye as I walked through, and against my better judgment, I sat down across from him. â€Å"How goes it?†I asked. My usual romantic fixation with him was put on pause when I saw that he looked agitated. He tapped the screen in annoyance. â€Å"Bad. I've been staring at this screen for two hours and haven't gotten anything done.†He paused. â€Å"No, that's not quite true. I ordered a Wonder Twins T-shirt and watched some videos on YouTube.†I smiled and propped my chin up in my hand. â€Å"Doesn't sound like a bad day's work.†â€Å"It is when it's been going on all week. My muse is an ungrateful harlot who's abandoned me to actually come up with my own plots.†â€Å"That's a record for you,†I observed. I'd seen him have fits of writer's block when we dated, but it never lasted more than a few days. â€Å"When's your deadline?†â€Å"Not for a while, but still†¦Ã¢â‚¬ He sighed. â€Å"I don't like to be stalled out. I'm not really sure what to do with my days if I'm not writing.†I started to say that he must have wedding stuff to do but then thought better of it. I kept to lighter topics. â€Å"Maybe it's time to pick up a hobby. Fencing? Origami?†That slightly bemused smile that was so characteristic for him crossed his lips. â€Å"I tried latch hook once.†â€Å"You did not.†â€Å"I did. Do you know how hard that is to do?†â€Å"It's actually pretty easy,†I said, trying to hide my laughter. â€Å"Kids do it, you know. Your nieces could probably do it.†â€Å"They can. And you're not making me feel better.†But those beautiful brown eyes were amused. I studied them for a moment, loving the way they would sometimes turn amber. A moment later, I snapped myself out of my lovesick spell. â€Å"There's always dancing,†I said mischievously. This made him laugh too. â€Å"I think we've proven how futile that is.†I'd tried twice to teach him how to do it – swing and salsa – all with disastrous results. Seth's talents lay in his mind, not his body. Well, upon further consideration, I realized that wasn't entirely true. â€Å"You haven't found the right kind,†I said. I'd given up on hiding my grin. â€Å"What's left? Riverdance? Square dancing? And do not even suggest jazz. I saw Newsies and was traumatized for, like, five years.†â€Å"Harsh,†I said. â€Å"You could still probably wear your T-shirts with jazz dancing. I know you must have a ‘Dancing Queen' shirt somewhere.†His shirt today sported Chuck Norris. â€Å"Unless, of course, you wanted some variety. Square dancers have some pretty sweet costumes.†He shook his head in exasperation. â€Å"I'll leave the dancing getup to you. And no, no ‘Dancing Queen' shirt yet – though I do have an Abba one. I think a ‘Dancing Queen' shirt would be better for you anyway, not me.†His eyes moved from my face to what he could see of my body at the table. â€Å"You look like you could go dancing right now.†I started to feel myself flush at his gaze and immediately utilized shape-shifting to nix it. The unseasonably warm weather lent itself to sundresses, and I had another on today. It was a cream-colored trapeze, sleeveless with a keyhole top that may or may not have been showing managerial-appropriate cleavage. He wasn't ogling me or anything, but I had learned long ago that Seth was good at keeping his emotions off of his face. I wondered what went through his mind. Simple aesthetic admiration? Lust? Disapproval of non-managerial cleavage? â€Å"This old thing?†I asked breezily, uncomfortable for reasons I couldn't explain. â€Å"You were wearing that color the first time we met.†He suddenly seemed embarrassed. â€Å"Not sure why I remember that.†â€Å"You don't,†I said. â€Å"I was wearing purple.†Now I felt flustered to remember that. He frowned in a way I found cute. â€Å"Were you? Oh, yeah. I guess you were. The violet top and flowered skirt.†Every detail. If he'd mentioned me wearing a snakeskin jacket, I might have passed out. Yet, I had a feeling he did remember that. Probably my shoes and the way I'd styled my hair too. An awkward silence grew. I might have been keeping the flush off of my face, but there was warmth spreading through me. And only half of it was desire. The rest was something else†¦something sweeter and deeper. I cleared my throat. â€Å"What's the book about? Cady and O'Neill, right?†He nodded, looking grateful for the subject change. â€Å"The usual. Mystery and intrigue, sexual tension and life-threatening situations.†He hesitated. â€Å"It's the last one.†â€Å"I – what?†I felt my jaw drop. Whatever romantic feelings that had been stirring in me immediately got pushed to the back burner. â€Å"You mean like†¦the end of the series?†Seth had written a lot of mysteries over his career, but Cady and O'Neill – his intrepid art and archaeology explorer duo – was his flagship series. â€Å"Why?†He shrugged, eyes moving back to the laptop screen. â€Å"Because it's time.†â€Å"How†¦how will you make your living?†His smile turned wry as he looked back up at me. â€Å"I've written other books that aren't about them, Georgina. Besides, you don't think my fans'll have enough faith to follow me to a new series?†â€Å"True,†I said softly. â€Å"We'll follow you anywhere.†I'd meant to say â€Å"they'll,†but it was too late. â€Å"I hope so,†he said, averting his eyes for a moment. When he looked back, I saw a spark of excitement. â€Å"But I'm actually into doing something new. I've got this idea – and it's really great. I just want to lose myself in it, you know?†I did know. I'd seen him forget parts of his real life plenty of times while caught up in a book. I wondered if this new project he was so enthusiastic about would intensify that zeal. â€Å"So you've got the ending for Cady and O'Neill figured out?†I asked. â€Å"No,†he said with a sigh, glow dimming. â€Å"That's the problem. I don't know how this is going to end.†I suddenly wondered if he was still talking about the books. Our gazes met again, and whatever might have come next was interrupted when Beth appeared at my side. â€Å"Georgina? A friend of yours is here to see you.†My heart leapt. Roman. Roman had read my note. His advice on that eerie siren song was about the only thing that could have dragged me away from Seth. I sprang up from my seat, giving Seth an apologetic look. â€Å"I've got to go.†He nodded, some troubled emotion in his eyes that I couldn't identify. That troubled me in return. He might be good at keeping his emotions off of his face, but at one time, I'd been pretty good at figuring them out. â€Å"No problem,†he said. Wistfulness? Was that the mystery emotion? I couldn't ponder it any longer. Roman was more important. I took the steps downstairs two at a time, anxious to see him. But when I reached the registers, where Beth had said my friend was waiting, it wasn't Roman I saw. It was Cody. Or, well, I think it was. It took me a moment to figure it out. He was dressed all in black – and not just jeans and a T-shirt. We were talking full regalia: a studded-leather jacket, steel-toed boots, and an – ugh – mesh shirt. His blond hair had black streaks in it, and heavy black eyeliner and lipstick over white foundation completed the look. I didn't know what to say, so I simply grabbed his arm and dragged him into my office before anyone else could see him. â€Å"What the hell are you doing?†The sun had only just gone down, which meant he must have doubled the speed limit to make it here so quickly. â€Å"I'm here to see Gabrielle,†he explained, casting an anxious glance at my doorway. â€Å"Where is she? I wanted to get here before you guys closed.†â€Å"She's not working tonight.†His face fell, but I couldn't help but add, â€Å"And honestly, I think that's a good thing.†â€Å"Why? Peter had a copy of The Seattle Sinner, and after going through it, we thought this would be the way to get her attention. He helped dress me.†â€Å"Wait. Peter had a copy of – ? Never mind. I don't want to know. Believe me, you would have gotten her attention. But I'm not sure it'd be the kind you want.†Cody gestured to his attire. â€Å"But she's into this scene. You said yourself that she dresses all in black.†â€Å"Yeah,†I admitted. â€Å"But yours seems†¦I don't know. Overdone. People like her are always on the lookout for wannabes. You try too hard, and you'll just put her further off.†He sighed and slumped into my desk's chair, dejected. â€Å"Then what am I supposed to do? That newspaper was my only lead.†â€Å"Well, for starters, don't let Peter dress you again. Ever. As for the rest†¦I don't know. Let me ask around and see if I can get you more to go on. Just please don't wear this outfit again.†â€Å"Okay,†he agreed. Just then, Doug stuck his head in. It wasn't his night to work, so I was kind of surprised, but not nearly as surprised as he was. â€Å"Hey, Kincaid, I had a question about the schedu – Jesus Fucking Christ! What is that?†â€Å"It's Cody,†I said. Doug walked gingerly into the office and peered at Cody's face. â€Å"Well, I'll be damned. It is. I thought it was the ghost of Gene Simmons.†â€Å"Gene Simmons isn't dead,†said Cody. â€Å"Cody's trying to impress Gabrielle,†I explained. Doug opened his mouth, no doubt to comment on the impossibility of that, but I held up a hand to stop him. â€Å"Yeah, yeah. I know. What did you need?†Doug needed to switch some shifts, and without his ladylove around, Cody decided to leave. I let him out the back door, not wanting to cause a panic in the store. Once the schedule was set, Doug and I bantered about the Cody and Gabrielle situation. Before long, I lost track of time, and closing announcements were being made on the intercom. Doug said his farewells – half afraid I'd put him to work if he stayed – and I set off to finish my own tasks. My meeting with Erik was getting closer, and I felt a mix of excitement and apprehension. An hour after the doors were locked, staff began to go home. I made one last sweep of the store and found Seth still sitting in the caf? ¦. No surprise. My coworkers could never bring themselves to kick him out when we closed. He'd actually gotten locked in once and accidentally set off the alarm. I walked over to his table, noting the enraptured look on his face as his fingers danced along the laptop's keys. â€Å"Hey, Mortensen,†I said. â€Å"You don't have to go home, but you can't stay here.†It took almost thirty seconds for him to look up, and even then, he seemed surprised to see me. â€Å"Oh. Hey.†I could feel a smile playing on my lips. This was picture perfect Seth behavior. â€Å"Hey, we're all closed down. Time to go.†He glanced around, noting the dark windows and lack of people in the store. â€Å"Oh, man. Sorry. I didn't even notice.†â€Å"I take it the muse came back?†â€Å"She did.†â€Å"So you know how it's going to end now?†â€Å"No. Not yet.†I walked Seth to the back door and armed the alarm before letting myself out. He told me good-bye, and if he'd had any dreamy affection for me earlier in the night, it was gone now. His characters now consumed his heart. It was something I'd had to accept when we were together, and watching him walk down the street, I decided that was how it should be. Seth's writing was too much of his being. I let my own dreamy affection go and drove up north of the city to Erik's store. I still felt a little bad about him meeting me so late, but the lights in his windows gleamed out into the night. And inside, the usual music and incense were going strong, just as they would during business hours. Glancing around, I didn't see him right away. Then, I noticed him kneeling down in front of some palmistry books. â€Å"Hey, Erik.†â€Å"Miss Kincaid.†He rose to his feet, but the motions were jerky and unsteady. And when he finally turned to face me, there was a gauntness in his dark-skinned face that hadn't been there the last time I saw him. My instinct was to rush over and support him, but I had a feeling he wouldn't welcome that. Still, I asked the obvious. â€Å"Are you okay? Have you been sick?†He gave me a gentle smile and began moving – slowly – toward the store's main counter. â€Å"A passing cold. They seem to last longer than they used to, but I'll be fine.†I wasn't so certain. I'd known Erik for a long time†¦. I'd lost track of the years, actually. It wasn't an uncommon thing with mortals, one that often blindsided me. One moment they'd seem young and healthy†¦the next, they were old and dying. It never hurt any less, either. Part of the reason Seth had broken up with me was to spare me the pain of that loss because I began growing overly paranoid about his well-being. Now, watching Erik, I felt even worse for keeping him out so late. I also felt bad because I realized I never visited except when I needed something. When had I last seen him? Months ago, when Jerome had been summoned. I'd sought Erik's help then and hadn't been by since. â€Å"Tea?†he offered, just like always. â€Å"No, no. I don't want to delay you,†I said. I leaned against the counter and felt relieved when he settled down on a stool. â€Å"I just wanted to ask you a couple things. Something weird happened.†I almost laughed as the words left my mouth. That was such a typical opening statement for me. Again, that earlier thought returned: my life was one big circle, repeating and repeating. I gave him the rundown on my weird encounters with the unknown and – for the large part – indescribable force. He listened carefully, bushy gray eyebrows knit into a frown. â€Å"I hate to tell you this,†he said when I finished, â€Å"but there are probably a number of things that could describe.†â€Å"Surprise, surprise,†I murmured. That was more a commentary on my life, not his abilities. â€Å"The fact that your†¦uh, friend couldn't identify it is intriguing.†Erik was one of the handful of people who knew Roman was in Seattle. Erik had no interest in Heaven and Hell's policies and wouldn't be tattling anytime soon. â€Å"Of course, he lacks the full skill set his relatives have. I don't suppose you've spoken to any greater immortals?†I shook my head. â€Å"No. They're notoriously absent, as usual. I think I'll be seeing Jerome soon.†He'd probably want to check in with Roman. â€Å"So we'll see then.†â€Å"I'm sorry I don't have any ready answers. I never seem to.†â€Å"Not in the beginning,†I said. â€Å"But you always come through in the end. More patterns.†â€Å"Hmm?†â€Å"Nothing,†I said with a small sigh. â€Å"Sometimes I just feel like the same things are happening to me over and over. Like, even this siren thing. Why me? In the last year, I've been targeted over and over. What are the odds? Why does this keep happening?†Erik's eyes studied me for several moments. â€Å"There are some people around whom the powers and supernatural beings of the world will always circle. You appear to be one of them.†â€Å"But why?†I asked, surprised at the childish tone in my voice. â€Å"I'm just another succubus. There are tons of us out there. And why recently? Why only in the last year?†It had to be the cruelest joke in the world that all these paranormal mishaps had started happening right when my romantic ones had. Apparently, one source of pain just wasn't enough. â€Å"I don't know,†Erik admitted. â€Å"Things change. Forces move that we can't see.†He paused and coughed, making me wince. How sick was he? â€Å"Again, I feel like I'm useless to you.†I reached out and gently squeezed his shoulder. â€Å"No, no. You're invaluable to me. I don't know how I would have gotten by all these years without you.†This earned me a smile. Wanting him to go to bed, I picked up my purse to leave. As I was heading to the door, he suddenly said, â€Å"Miss Kincaid?†I glanced back. â€Å"Yeah?†â€Å"Do you still talk to Mr. Mortensen?†The question caught me by surprise. Erik had been intrigued when Seth and I were dating, marveling at the connection between a human and a succubus, though he didn't have the crazy obsession that Carter used to. â€Å"Sure. Sometimes.†My earlier conversation with Seth came back to me, the ease and warmth that had surrounded us. â€Å"And things are amicable?†â€Å"More or less.†Aside from his impending marriage, of course. â€Å"That's good. It doesn't always happen in these situations.†â€Å"Yeah, I know. Although – †I bit off my words. Erik tilted his head, studying me curiously. â€Å"Although what?†â€Å"It's amicable, except sometimes†¦sometimes this whole situation with him. It's like having my soul split in two.†â€Å"Understandable,†he said. Those eyes burned with compassion, and I felt tears spring up in my own. â€Å"I'm sorry I brought it up. I was just curious.†I assured him it was okay and said good-bye again. The mention of Seth and the recollection of being with him earlier had made my mood go melancholy. I drove back to West Seattle, miserable that I'd be helping with his wedding tomorrow and worried over Erik's sickly state. As heavily as those thoughts weighed on me, they immediately flew from my mind as soon as I walked into my living room. â€Å"Roman!†He sat on the couch as he had last time, now eating a microwavable chicken pot pie. The TV was on, but he didn't seem to be watching it. When he looked up at me, he didn't wear that amused, teasing look. His expression was dark. Troubled, even. â€Å"I've been waiting for you to get home,†I exclaimed, tossing my purse and keys to the floor. â€Å"You won't believe what happened.†Roman sighed. â€Å"No, you won't believe what happened.†â€Å"Yeah, but this is – â€Å" He held up a hand to interrupt me. â€Å"Let me get this out first. It's been driving me crazy.†I swallowed my impatience. â€Å"Okay. I'll bite. Does it have something to do with Simone?†He nodded. â€Å"Yeah. I followed her tonight to this twenty-four-hour coffee shop called Bird of Paradise.†He eyed me carefully. â€Å"Do you know it?†Now I felt a frown creeping over my face. â€Å"Yeah†¦it's in Queen Anne, right around the corner from Emerald City. What was she doing there? I mean, aside from getting coffee?†Roman's expression turned darker and – unless I was mistaken – sympathetic. â€Å"She was there hitting on a guy,†he said. â€Å"Seth.â€
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